The Chicago Bears head to The Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Saints this Sunday. In the Week 9 odds, the Bears will try to bounce back from an ugly loss on the road to the Chargers, while the Saints aim to build on a road victory against the Colts last week.
NFL odds opened with the Saints as 7.5-point favorites for this contest before moving to -8.5. Here are my best free NFL picks for Bears vs. Saints on November 5.
Bears vs Saints odds
Bears vs Saints predictions
While the Chicago Bears have one of the worst overall defenses in the NFL, they’ve surprisingly been phenomenal against the run. The Bears rank third in defensive rush EPA and success rate while holding opponents to a league-low 3.3 yards per carry. That isn’t to say that they’ve been shutting down opposing running backs, however, since they are getting gashed in other ways.
Chicago is surrendering a league-worst 62.1 receiving yards per game to RBs. That’s bad news in this matchup against the New Orleans Saints since they’ll be trying to contain top pass-catching back Alvin Kamara. The O/U on Kamara’s receiving yards is set at 32.5, a number he has eclipsed in four of five games this year. He’s averaging 45.6 receiving yards per game and is coming off a 51-yard performance in last week’s 38-27 win against the Colts.
While backup Jamaal Williams has been cutting into Kamara’s carries, Kamara remains the primary option in the passing game with Williams receiving just one target over the last two weeks. New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr has also been on fire, throwing for more than 300 yards in three straight games.
My best bet: Alvin Kamara Over 32.5 receiving yards (-110)
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Bears vs Saints same-game parlay
Alvin Kamara Over 32.5 receiving yards (-110)Bears +8.5 (-110)D.J. Moore Under 60.5 receiving yards (-125)
+575 at bet365
The Bears lost 30-13 last Sunday but they pulled off a double-digit win in Tyson Bagent’s NFL debut the previous week. While Bagent is a mediocre passer, he also hasn’t been a complete disaster after taking over for injured starter Justin Fields.
The Bears have also generally been competitive after an ugly start to their season, while the Saints are 2-4 straight up and against the spread in their last six. This is simply too many points to spot for a New Orleans squad that has been a middle-of-the-pack team this year. Keep in mind that they haven’t laid more than 7.5 points in a game since 2020 when they had a 12-4 record with Drew Brees at QB.
While I don’t think the Bears will get blown out too badly in this contest, I also don’t expect a big game from wideout D.J. Moore. Moore has been held to 55 or fewer yards in his last three games and Chicago’s offense has been very conservative under Bagent, with the rookie ranking last in the league in average intended air yards (5.6).
The Saints’ defense also ranks eighth in dropback EPA and third in dropback success rate, and Moore was held to just two catches for 12 yards in a pair of games against them last year.
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Bears vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
The Saints opened as 7-point favorites but the line immediately moved to -7.5 before eventually hitting -8.5. The total opened at 41.5 and has ticked down ever-so-slightly to 41.
The Saints are fresh off a 38-27 victory against the Colts to improve to 4-4 SU and 2-5-1 ATS this year. They’ve had some issues on offense and have struggled in the red zone (27th in the league with a 42.9% conversion rate) but the Bears are dead-last in opponent conversion rate (78.3%).
New Orleans is better on defense, ranking sixth in EPA and second in success rate, and could be even better after trading for Montez Sweat to bolster the pass rush. Chicago’s defense is just 30th in EPA and ranks just 31st in defensive dropback EPA.
